Forecasting trends

Before being able to forecast 5 trends that are affecting design, I needed to understand what a trend is and what does it entail to forecast a trend.

Trend forecasters are:

lifestyle detectives, they spend their time detecting patterns or shifts in attitudes, mindsets or lifestyle options, that run against current thinking or how people normally behave, live, dress, communicate and trade.

And just like the practice of Service Design, it is required to use a set of techniques and tools from many other disciplines to effectively forecast trends.

What is a trend?

Raymond (2010) establishes that a trend is the direction in which something tends to move and which has consequential impact on the culture, society or business sector through which it moves.

Trends are a fundamental part of our emotional, physical and psychological landscape, and by detecting, mapping and using them to anticipate what is new and next in the word we live in, we are contributing in no small way to better understanding the underlying ideas and principles that drive and motivate us as people. Trends are compulsive, addictive, and... viral.

The diffusion of Innovation Curve

A study conducted by Everett M. Rogers, identified that regardless of the innovation, the pattern of diffusion through a particular group, community or social tribe was the same.

• Innovators: responsible for the development of an innovation or the introduction of a new idea.

• Early Adopters: usually close friends or colleagues of the Innovators. These are highly visible and well connected.

• Early Majority: they need to see how the Early Adopters relate to and graple with any new idea. They are followers other people trust.

• Late majority: conservative by nature, and require high levels of reassurance and explanation about how a new idea will work and how they can benefit from it. This group is governed by social norms (many companies put a lot of effort in servicing this group).

• Laggards are the slowest to adopt the new idea. They are conservative and resistant when it comes to trying something new.

Source: The Trend Forecasters Book

The 'diffusion of innovation curve', is a pathway forecasters look for and attempt to map when they are noting a new trend's passage through the culture.

Trend forecasters spend a lot of time observing Innovators and Early Adopters in places where many of tomorrow's mainstream ideas are happening today.

According to Kumar, for sensing innovation opportunities the most common trends that we track relate to technology, business, culture, people, markets and the economy.

The diamond-shaped Trend model

Source: The trend forecasters handbook.

Henrik Vejlgaard's diamond-shaped model, offers a clear and easy route to map a particular trend through. He also emphasizes that the speed of a trend is also influences by the country, city or town, as well as social groups within which it is tracked.

Cultural observation

It is important that as a forecaster to watch cultures as well as industries for signs that an idea or trend is beginning to emerge.

Brailling

Cultural Brailing Is about being hyper observant and alert to newness. Brailling a place with all of my senses - smell, touch, hearing, taste and sight. Reach out for the new in professions, societies, countries or industries that I might have no real knowledge of, or interest in.

• The who - the innovator (who started it)

• the what - (what it should be called) the trend or innovation after it is named

• The where - (where it came from) the place where the trend begins

• The why - the drivers to consider (why is it emerging now)

• the when - the right time to look for a trend (when was ir first noted).

One thing to note is that trends emerge because innovators are constantly at work stimulating our senses and surprise our expectations. Said trends are found in all aspects of our culture, from architecture to, fashion, design, industry, it is important to note that a desire, a mood or an idea can also be a trend.

So now with a clear understanding on what a trend is and how to forecast, this is the methodology I will be using in my work.

Resource:

Raymond, M. 2010. The trend forecasters handbook. London: Laurence King Publishing Ltd.

Kumar, V. 2013. 101 Design Methods. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons Inc.